What Happens If Russia Wins the War in Ukraine?

Image by Eugen Visan from Pixabay

As the world waits for the onslaught by Russia against Ukraine, one can’t help but wonder, will Russia win the war even if they win the war? I know, confusing, right? Let’s dig a little deeper. The Ukrainians have vowed to fight until the end. I take that to mean that even if Russia does somehow manage to win the war the Ukrainians will not stop fighting for their country. There will be pockets of residence that will prove to be a thorn in Putin’s side as they are now.

The fact that Russia may eventually achieve military success does not mean that Russia will win the war in Ukraine.  Russia’s war in Ukraine has bolstered its Western allies in the short term, but that political will may be tested as energy prices rise and as the war and refugee crisis develop. After Russia’s war in Ukraine, a truly sovereign Ukraine, especially deprived of its more pro-Russian eastern provinces, will certainly be more hostile to Russia and more closely aligned with the West than before the conflict began.

If Russia pursues Russian political goals in Ukraine through military means, Europe will no longer be what it was before the war. If Russia gains control of Ukraine or destabilizes it on a massive scale, a new era will usher in the United States and Europe. A prolonged occupation of vindictive Ukraine would weaken Russia economically and geopolitically. Such a career could be a serious waste of money for the Kremlin.

If Russia manages to take Ukraine under its control, it will be very difficult, especially the occupation part, it will be very difficult. If the people in the Kremlin truly believe that Ukraine can give in to their demands, then Moscow can be expected to resist.

According to Russia, victory in Ukraine could be within reach. Until then, however, the only certainty for NATO is that Moscow will continue to escalate in Ukraine and the conflict will be more chaotic by the day. Russia may win militarily, but will meet resistance, which will be detrimental to all Russians trying to impose their will on Ukraine.

President Biden has warned that Vladimir Putin is actively considering using chemical weapons in his invasion of Ukraine. That may be surprising to some, but it shouldn’t be. Moscow has been engaging in a dangerous game of escalation.

The logic that existed prior to the conflict is just as strong today: Russia is forcing a scenario where it must either escalate or risk acknowledging defeat by backing down in Ukraine. Some have found comfort in the fact that Russia has not yet used chemical weapons, suggesting that any threat to do so may well just be a bluff. This is almost certainly misplaced.

At the start of the conflict, Russia was out to quickly and decisively decapitate the Ukrainian government and seize Kyiv. Russia wanted a swift military maneuver that would precipitate Ukraine’s surrender. When that was not forthcoming, Russia engaged in further escalatory military action in the country’s east and south.

After facing unexpectedly stubborn resistance, Russia’s campaign took an increasingly dirty turn. Hospitals, theaters, schools, and more are targets in Russia’s quest to capture Ukraine, as is the growing list of individuals Russia wants eliminated. As this too stalls—and with the prospect of urban war looming large—it appears all too likely another escalation may be on the way.

The US and its NATO allies continue to arm the Ukrainians in their effort to lay waist to the Russian military. I am in no way a foreign policy expert, but I do have eyes and ears. The President of the United States has said Putin committed war crimes and genocide. On March 24th, Biden has said that if Putin uses chemicals or biological weapons, NATO will respond “in kind” “The nature of the response depends on the nature of the use.”   “cnbc.com

I don’t see Putin caring about the threat he faces against the US and its NATO allies. My only thought on this threat given by Biden isn’t just an empty threat. The line in the sand has been drawn. There are other countries out there besides Sweden and Finland thinking of joining NATO. They want to be able to trust the US to keep its word. The world waits and watches to see if Putin will use chemical or biological weapons.

God Bless America, God Bless the Veterans

 

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