All indications are that the actual combat strength of the Russian reinforcements that are likely to go to eastern Ukraine will be only a fraction of what the number of soldiers and units indicates, and therefore the outcome of the battle is far from clear.
The Russian military is unlikely to be able to build up combat power for combat operations in eastern Ukraine in proportion to the number of troops and battalion tactical groups that they send there. Russia is likely to continue to use heavily damaged and partially reformed units piecemeal in offensive operations that bring limited benefits at a high cost.
For Russia, the longer the war in Ukraine goes on and the more casualties there are, the more likely it is that the morale of Russians will be undermined, from simple soldiers to Russian society as a whole.
The Russian military is attempting to generate sufficient combat power to seize and hold the portions of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts that it does not currently control after it completes the seizure of Mariupol.
There are good reasons to question the Russian armed forces’ ability to do so and their ability to use regenerated combat power effectively despite a reported simplification of the Russian command structure. This update, which we offer on a day without significant military operations on which to report, attempts to explain and unpack some of the complexities involved in making these assessments. “understandingwar.org“
Russia cannot recruit new troops because potential conscripts are too afraid to die in battle, the Ukrainian Defense Ministry said at a press conference on Friday, citing military intelligence. The failure was due to the fact that potential Russian recruits were afraid of becoming “cannon fodder,” the Ukrainian Defense Ministry said.
The Russian Armed Forces probably have few or no full-fledged units in reserve for deployment in Ukraine due to an imperfect mobilization scheme that cannot be resolved in a short war.
Russia is failing to recruit new troops because potential conscripts are too afraid of dying in battle, Ukraine’s defense ministry told a Friday press briefing, citing military intelligence.
Russia had planned to mobilize 26,000 reservists to fight in the Donbas, but this effort ultimately failed because Russians were avoiding being conscripted, defense ministry spokesman Col. Oleksandr Motuzyanyk told the briefing.
“Males aged 18 to 65 make every attempt to avoid mobilization because they don’t want to become cannon fodder for the occupier’s army,” Motuzyanyk said.
Ukraine’s defense ministry claims it has killed about 20,000 soldiers and officers of the Russian army. This figure has not been independently verified. “businessinsider.com“
If this information proves to be true, then it would seem Putin has a serious problem on his hands. Is this Russia’s Vietnam? The United States had draftees burning their draft cards openly. Many refused to go to that war. Also, if the information is correct, then it would seem Putin is willing to sacrifice the conscripts in order to save his experienced troops.
So, the question still remains, how much longer will the Ukrainian’s have to prove themselves in battle? Will the US and its allies just arm them when eventually they are going to need more than just arming? When the time comes I would hope the US and its allies wouldn’t sit back and watch Ukraine fall to Vladimir Putin.
God Bless America, God Bless the Veterans